Maplestory M: How many gold leaves can you get out of equipment extractions?

Equipment extractions are one of the more routine methods of obtaining gold leaves in Maplestory M. You sacrifice an equipment, pay a meso cost, and the game rewards you with some amount of gold leaves (and occult cubes) as a result:

Equipment RankGold LeavesOccult Cubes
Normal0-70-1
Rare0-290-2
Epic0-730-3
Legendary0-2930-6

So, normal ranked equipment gives you from 0 to 7 gold leaves. But, have you noticed that you seem to get 0 gold leaves more frequently than you should?—assuming that you are equally likely to get 0, 1, 2, …, 7 gold leaves for each extraction.

It turns out that the probability of getting 0 gold leaves is much higher than the probability of getting 1 gold leaf, or 2, or 3… all the way up to 7! In fact, based on 242 individual extractions, it looks like the odds of getting 0 gold leaves is roughly 50%, while the odds of getting 1 or 2 gold leaves is 0%!

The estimated probabilities from this data are shown in the table below. It’s probably safe to say that the odds of getting 3 to 7 gold leaves are roughly equal.

Gold Leaf Yield per Normal ExtractionEstimated Probability
047%
10%
20%
38%
412%
511%
610%
712%

What can we conclude from this table? Well, if we round up each probability to the nearest 10%, we find that the average extraction of a normal equipment will give you 2.5 gold leaves.

(50% × 0) + (10% × 3) + (10% × 4) + (10% × 5) + (10% × 6) + (10% × 7) = 2.5

(If each probability were the same, you would expect an average of 3.5 per extraction!)

Obviously, this is not a very efficient way of obtaining gold leaves. Fortunately, there are many other legitimate ways to obtain gold leaves in Maplestory M: read more about them in my previous post.

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